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Winners and Losers of The Real Estate Market [Podcast Episode 13]

Ryan Fink


In this episode, I’m going to be talking about real estate markets, the winners and the losers. In real estate currently, there’s winners and losers. Winners being areas that are growing, that is more individuals moving to the area and more houses being built. Losers, on the other hand, are the ones that are not growing.

In fact, they’re shrinking, especially now. And in this podcast, I’m going to explain three markets that are winning and three that are losing. Let’s get started.

So winning.

Boise, Idaho.

The median sales price is $400,000. According to Boisedev.com. According to Norada Real Estate Investments, the population job growth is triple the national average, a low unemployment rate  – it’s around 3.5%.

Forbes ranked Boise, Idaho, number six for most in job growth. And then finally, the one-year appreciation forecast is 3.2%. Now, what does that mean? It means that the value of the homes will appreciate by roughly 3.2% and this equates to more money in the seller’s pocket.

Albuquerque, New Mexico.

According to Real Watch Network, the median sales price is $219,000.  The one-year job growth is 53% better than the national average, monthly rent is 21% below the national average, average home price is 14% below the national average. It’s the 32nd most populous city in the U.S. And  supposedly Netflix is supposed to expand into the area which will lead to around a thousand new jobs in the future.

This is according to RealWealthNetwork.com.

Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

And I’m going to give the statistics of each city individually. So, according to Mash Visor, Raleigh real estate statistics are as follows. The median sales price is $477,440. The price per square foot is $197.

The top Raleigh neighborhood for real estate investing is Northeast Raleigh and the forecasted real estate appreciation for 2021 is 7%. Next, Durham, the median sales price is $377,133. The price per square foot is $209. The top neighborhood for real estate investing is Scarsdale Village and the real estate appreciation for 2021 is 6.9%.

Both of those city statistics were found on MashVisor.com.

Losers of the real estate market.

Mountain View, California.

It’s near San Antonio. The current median home value is $1,224,900. There’s a forecasted value drop of around 5.83%. Why is this, you may ask?

Simply put the more expensive houses are, the less people are gonna move there. So there you have it. When you have a median home value that high, specifically in the millions, you’re really going to see a drop off there of the market. The stats from Mountain View by the way, were found on BusinessInsider.com.

Next is St. Louis

. According to Financial Samurai, the population growth is negative 2.2%. Employment growth is about 0.9%.

Finally New York

Population growth of 0.5%. Employment growth of 1.2% and increase in home values by 7.8%. However, when you have such high home prices, for example, in Manhattan, the median sales price is around $1,000,000, that high median sales price negates or detracts from the small population growth and small employment growth.

The statistics for New York, New York were found on Financial Samurai and PropertyShark.com. Now, so a bit about the reasons as to why these real estate markets are acting as they are. In the three winning cities that I covered.

The main reason why people are moving to those cities is because they’re affordable relative to some of the big, big, you know, New York, LA, areas that we’re all familiar with. So I think that the reason they’re moving to those winning cities is because of their affordability.

Now as to why the losing markets are performing as they are. It varies a little bit more. In Mountain View, California, which is of course near San Antonio, California, as I’ve mentioned, the reason why the area is really losing is because of the high housing prices. And the reason those high housing prices are there is because of Google having one of their headquarters in the area.

So Google will bring those employees over and the housing market knows that they’re willing to pay those high prices. So that’s why those prices have gone up. So really that’s the main reason, I believe, for Mountain View, California.

Now, New York City and St. Louis have a slightly different reason as to why the real estate market is not performing well there. So first in New York City, according to the Wall Street Journal, they’ve seen a surge in shooting victims and other violent crime. Shooting victims were up 81% and shooting incidents were up 76% from January 1st through January 2nd, compared to the same period in 2019.

So we see an 81% increase in shooting victims and then a 76% increase in shooting incidents. Now, if you can help it, if you have the means, no one wants to live near violent crime. Period. So that’s why people are leaving New York City. Now, St. Louis.

According to KSHB Kansas City, which is a local Kansas City news outlet, the 2020 homicide rate was the highest it’s been in 50 years. According to police, 262 people were killed in St. Louis last year, which is five less than the record of 267, which was set in 1993. So they were very close to that record. Again, this was found on KSHB, Kansas City. So what does all this mean?

It means that if people can help it, like I was saying, if they can help it, they’re going to move their family away. Period. They’re not going to put their family’s life in danger. If they can move away from crime, they’re going to do it.

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